Postdoctoral Research Fellow · ESRI Dublin

Juan
Duran

I am an applied economist interested in International, Labor, and Regional Economics. Currently, I am a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in the area of Trade, Competitiveness, and Foreign Direct Investment.

I joined ESRI after completing my PhD in Economics at Trinity College Dublin. I received my Master's from Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

My current research examines how AI adoption, digitalisation, and exposure to international shocks influence firm performance, labour markets, and regional economic dynamics.
01
International Economics

Trade liberalization, foreign direct investment, multinational enterprises, and their effects on local markets and regional dynamics.

02
Labour Economics

AI adoption and labour market outcomes, wage inequality, gender gaps, and the impact of technological change on worker well-being.

03
Regional Economics

Spatial equilibrium, regional effects of globalisation, urban amenities, housing costs, and productivity dynamics across regions.

Academic output

Research

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Journal Articles 5 papers

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FDIInequalityLaborRegional
Inward Foreign Direct Investment, Superstar Firms and Wage Inequality between Firms: Evidence from European Regions
The World Economy, 2025
with Iulia Siedschlag
Published +
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on wage inequality between firms across European regions. Using firm‐level data from the Orbis Europe dataset over the period 2012–2021, we uncover a pattern of rising between‐firm wage dispersion coinciding with increasing MNE presence. To identify causal effects, we address potential endogeneity through the use of instrumental variables. The results of this analysis indicate that the regional presence of MNEs significantly contributes to increased wage inequality between firms across European regions. The effects are more pronounced for MNE parent firms and top‐performing foreign affiliates, underscoring the role of international superstar firms in driving regional wage disparities. This research advances the understanding of the distributional impacts of foreign direct investment and its implications for regional inequalities.
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Figure Fig. 1 — Between-firm wage inequality, EU regions
TradeLaborGenderRegional
Structural Change and Gender Inequality: Trade, Industry Shifts, and Regional Labor Markets in Mexico
Journal of Regional Science, 2025
Published +
Abstract
Examines how structural changes in local industry composition have contributed to the reduction of gender gaps in employment hours across Mexican metropolitan zones (MZs) between 1990 and 2010. The results show that trade-induced declines in the goods sector's employment share significantly increase female relative employment hours, with effects concentrated in smaller cities.
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TradeRegionalInequality
Spatial Equilibrium and the Regional Effects of Trade Liberalization
Economía LACEA, 2025
Published +
Abstract
Examines how trade liberalization influenced wage disparities between college-educated and noncollege-educated workers, as well as urban amenities, across Mexican municipalities from 1990 to 2010, during the implementation of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
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Macro & Finance
Making Hard Choices: Trilemmas and Dilemmas of Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America
Economía Chilena (Central Bank of Chile), 2019
Published +
Abstract
Tests the linearity of the trilemma of macroeconomic policy in Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, providing empirical evidence on whether these economies face a genuine trilemma or rather a dilemma, using threshold models.
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Macro & Finance
Un Análisis de la Efectividad de las Intervenciones Cambiarias en el Perú
Estudios Económicos (Central Bank of Peru), 2016
Published +
Abstract
Explores the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru over 2003–2015, using event studies and threshold models. Finds evidence of short-term effectiveness that diminishes at high intervention frequencies.
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Status guide: badges indicate each paper's current stage — first draft, working paper, submitted, or revise & resubmit.
Work in Progress 4 papers

No working papers match the current filter.

AILabor
The Impact of AI Exposure on Labor Market Outcomes and Worker Well-Being: Insights from Longitudinal Data in Australia
with Dora Tuda
Submitted +
Abstract
Investigates how occupational exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) affects labour market outcomes and worker well-being using longitudinal microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Workers in AI-exposed occupations experience higher hourly wages and greater perceived autonomy in how work is performed, but also report reductions in both usual and desired hours worked, alongside lower satisfaction with job security. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that AI-exposed casual workers faced greater declines in hours and wages, while women saw relative gains in employment and pay, and older workers were less affected in terms of hours.
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Figure Fig. 1 — AI exposure index by occupation
AIProductivityFDI
Artificial Intelligence and Firm-Level Productivity: Early Evidence from a Small Open Economy
with Iulia Siedschlag
Working paper +
Abstract
Analyses the productivity effects of AI adoption using firm-level data from Ireland over 2013–2024. Provides early causal evidence on how AI adoption affects total factor productivity in a small open economy highly integrated into global value chains.
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CrimeLabor
Slaughterhouse Closures and Reduced Crime Rates: Evidence from Colombia
Submitted +
Abstract
Examines the effect of slaughterhouse closures on crime rates in Colombian municipalities using a quasi-experimental design that leverages exogenous variation from a 2007 sanitary reform, which led to the closure of over 400 slaughterhouses and Local Projection Difference-inDifferences (LP-DiD) models. It finds that municipalities where all slaughterhouses closed experienced sustained and significant reductions in assault and theft rates -the most prevalent forms of interpersonal crime.
↗ SSRN draft
ProductivityLabor
The Effects of Investment in Education and Training on Productivity Growth in the European Union
with Iulia Siedschlag
Revise & resubmit +
Abstract
Studies the impact of on-the-job training on labour productivity using EUKLEMS & INTANProd data across EU member states. Identifies the channels through which human capital investment translates into productivity growth and examines heterogeneity across industries and countries.
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Lecturer
Lecturer · Undergraduate UG 4th year
Applied Economics
Trinity College Dublin — Department of Economics
Urban Economics
2022
Lecturer · Postgraduate MSc
Introductory Mathematics (MSc in Economics)
Trinity College Dublin — Department of Economics
Optimization, Calculus, Differential Equations
2022
Lecturer · Undergraduate UG
Microeconomics III
Universidad Nacional de Colombia — Department of Economic Sciences
Game Theory, Industrial Organization
2016
Teaching Assistant
Teaching Assistant · Postgraduate MSc
Impact Evaluation (MSc in International Development)
Trinity College Dublin — Department of Geography
Introduction to Stata, Difference-in-differences · Lecturer: Tara Bedi
2022
Teaching Assistant · Undergraduate UG 2nd year
Intermediate Economics
Trinity College Dublin — Department of Economics
Consumer and production theory · Lecturer: Francis O'Toole
2020–21
Teaching Assistant · Undergraduate UG 2nd year
Mathematical & Statistical Methods
Trinity College Dublin — Department of Economics
Calculus, optimization, statistical inference · Lecturers: Adrea Guariso, Michael Wycherley, Nicola Fontana
2018–22
Education
2018–2023
PhD in Economics
Trinity College Dublin
2014–2016
MSc in Economics
Universidad Nacional de Colombia (UNAL)
Earlier
BA in Economics
Universidad Nacional de Colombia (UNAL)
Positions
2023 – present
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
ESRI · Dublin, Ireland — Trade, Competitiveness & FDI
Fields
International Economics
Trade, FDI, multinational enterprises
Labour Economics
AI & automation, wage inequality, well-being
Regional Economics
Spatial equilibrium, urban amenities, productivity
Selected Publications
2025 · The World Economy
Inward FDI, Superstar Firms and Wage Inequality
with Iulia Siedschlag
2025 · Journal of Regional Science
Structural Change and Gender Inequality in Mexico
2025 · Economía LACEA
Spatial Equilibrium and Regional Effects of Trade Liberalization
Profiles & Contact
ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
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